Student News
Students Identify Indicators of Instability, present findings to National Intelligence Officer for Warning
On Friday, April 20, students from Professor Phil Williams’ capstone seminar course, “Early Warning for Contemporary Threats: The Challenge of ‘Feral Cities’” presented their research to the National Intelligence Officer for Warning at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Kenneth Knight. The students’ research explored cities and urban areas that have the potential to spiral into anarchy and create massive challenges to international order and stability. With teeming populations and rapid slum growth, many cities in the developing world are threatened by the explosion of lawlessness and disorder. Called “feral cities” by Richard Norton, these urban areas might also act as incubators and vectors for pandemic disease and safe havens for criminal and terrorist networks.
The goal of the presentation was two-fold: to provide a set of “indicators” pointing to instability and to introduce the concept of assessing cities as emerging security challenges. According to the class, urbanization is a global trend, but is especially powerful in the developing world where it is accompanied by poverty, overcrowding, crime, disease, environmental decay, and radicalization - all of which threaten the stability of cities.
GSPIA Students Jay Fisher (MPIA ’07), Carrie Hemington (MPIA ’07), Frank Honkus (MPIA), Vanja Lundell (MPIA ’07), Devin McDonald (MPIA ’07), Justin Reed (MPIA ’07), Ali Ashraf (PhD), Dane VandenBerg (MPIA ’07), and Marco Velarde (MPIA ’07) each focused on a major city for the presentation, analyzing the factors that could imperil the city. These factors included environmental hazards, overcrowded slums, street gangs, and sectarian violence. The students then developed scenarios depicting the future of their city in the year 2020, highlighting the pathways towards city ferality or collapse. The group members also monitored the “health” of an assortment of cities, and finally used the indicator set to rank 63 developing-world cities according to their level of instability in a “Feral Cities Index.”
Knight, a member of the National Intelligence Council, described the students’ presentation as “remarkable.” He added, “The scenarios, for me, were very plausible, which is a warning in and of itself.” In addition, he noted that the ideas they had developed were of sufficient importance to be brought to the attention of senior policy-makers. Williams, who is a National Intelligence Council Associate for the warning office, was delighted by the professionalism of the presentation. He stated that the willingness of the National Intelligence Office for Early Warning to visit Pittsburgh and GSPIA to listen to his students was a testament to Ken Knight’s open-minded approach to intelligence, and the fact that Knight went away so impressed with the presentation was a tribute to the students’ hard work and careful analysis. Students Brief RAND Corporation on Importance of Gender Perspective in International Security Research
On Wednesday, April 18, five students in Dr. Charli Carpenter's "Sex, Power, and Security" course briefed senior officials in RAND Corporation on the necessity of a gender perspective in international security research.
"Unconventional Analysis for Unconventional Threats" examined three RAND national security reports: "Beyond Al-Qaeda," "The Muslim World After 9/11," and "Securing Health: Lessons from Nation-Building Missions.” The team analyzed the reports and offered suggestions as to how a gender perspective might have added additional insights to the findings.
Students Frank Honkus (MPIA), Vanja Lundell (MPIA ’07), Ashley Masi (MPIA), Justin Reed (MPIA ’07), and Ben Rubin (PhD) evaluated the reports according to several criteria, such as whether the impact of masculinity was considered and how women's voices and perspectives were included in research.
"I think they were very effective," said Carpenter, of her students. "At the end [those in attendance] seemed at least partially convinced that a gender lens might add value to future research."
Of the semester project, Carpenter said, "The assignment was to determine whether incorporating gender could help RAND help the US better in winning what has been called the ‘Long War.’ At the same time it’s important not to assume that ‘gender’ means ‘women’: men also have important reproductive health needs,” she added. Carpenter cited young boys being sexually abused by the Taliban as a surprising example of gender-based violence that has received little attention in nation-building rhetoric.
"There are certain issues in international security where applying a gender lens is very intuitive," says Carpenter, adding that she urged her students to examine other, oft-forgotten research scenarios in which gender perspectives add richer dimensions to the findings.
|
